Leading his first FOMC meeting, Chairman Warsh walked a tightrope, voting with his unanimous board to hold rates steady at a target range of 3.5% – 3.75%. Equities slumped on the news and the 10 Year Treasury held steady at 4.45%. However, the forward curve suggests a quarter point increase by year-end and possibly as early as October. As noted by Moody’s Chief Economist, “The Fed is stuck between surging inflation, which argues for rate hikes, and a soft job market, which argues for cuts, thus no change.”