Summary
The report examines how artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reshape the labor market and influence U.S. office real estate demand through 2030. While AI is creating excitement around productivity and innovation, it is also raising concerns about job disruption, especially in office-based roles. In the short term, AI-driven industries such as cloud computing, semiconductors, and data infrastructure are generating new office demand in technology hubs like the San Francisco Bay Area, as well as markets including Seattle, Los Angeles, Austin, and New York City. However, over time AI is expected to reduce labor-driven office demand by enabling companies to achieve more output with fewer employees, particularly affecting entry-level and highly automatable knowledge-based jobs.
Despite concerns about displacement, the report argues that AI is unlikely to cause a collapse in office demand. Instead, it will accelerate existing workplace trends, especially the shift toward high-quality, collaboration-focused office environments. The study forecasts that office-using employment growth between 2026 and 2030 will remain nearly flat at just 0.3%, an unusually weak outlook outside of a recession. Office vacancy rates are projected to rise slightly to 21.5% by 2030 under the base-case scenario, though outcomes could vary depending on the pace of AI adoption and workforce restructuring. Higher-skill and relationship-driven jobs are expected to benefit from AI augmentation rather than replacement, making premium office spaces more resilient while lower-quality commodity office spaces face greater pressure.
The report also highlights opportunities for businesses, investors, and commercial real estate stakeholders. Companies will increasingly require flexible, efficient workplaces designed around collaboration, culture, and employee wellbeing. At the same time, AI will provide occupiers with tools to optimize workplace strategies and improve productivity. For investors and property owners, long-term success will depend on owning high-quality assets in innovation-focused markets with strong tenant demand. Overall, the report suggests that while AI will transform how people work and use office space, it is more likely to reshape and refine the office market rather than eliminate it.
